Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks (A. Barattieri and M. Cacciatore)


Relatore
Alessandro Barattieri - University of Montreal

Data e ora
mercoledì 9 febbraio 2022 alle ore 12.00 - In presenza + Zoom Webinar

Referente
Emanuele Bracco

Data pubblicazione
22 dicembre 2021

Dipartimento
Scienze Economiche  

Riassunto

Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade-policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows increase in intermediate-input and final goods prices, and a decline in stock market returns.

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